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    The main IP address: 52.44.246.5,Your server United States,Wilmington ISP:E.I. du Pont de Nemours and Co. Inc.  TLD:com CountryCode:US

    The description :the end of suffering? selection pressure in a post-darwinian world...

    This report updates in 28-Nov-2018

Created Date:2007-05-23
Changed Date:2018-02-08

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 talk delivered at the touch me festival, zagreb, december 2008 the reproductive revolution selection pressure in a post-darwinian world here are three predictions about life one thousand years from now: 1) suffering of any kind will be biologically impossible. our descendants will lead lives of genetically pre-programmed bliss whose worst lows surpass today's peak experiences. a thousand years hence, the heritable hedonic set-point of ordinary waking life will have been ratcheted upwards so that everyday existence feels sublime. 2) our genetically enhanced successors won't grow old and die, but will be effectively immortal, barring accidents which mean certain brains have to be restored from digital backup. 3) posthumans will be innately smarter than us, not just in the narrow autistic sense of intelligence measured by contemporary iq tests, but also a more empathetic intelligence. to use a non-scientific term, our descendants will be "wiser" than contemporary humans. these are bold claims. they could of course be completely mistaken: futurology doesn't have a brilliant track-record. however, i'm going to argue why these three seemingly unrelated developments - superhappiness, superlongevity and superintelligence - are intimately linked. we are on the brink of a revolution in reproductive medicine - the coming era of designer babies, a fundamental transition in the evolution of life in the universe. evolution will shortly cease to be "blind" and "random", as it has been for the past four billion years. instead, intelligent agents are going to choose and design genotypes in anticipation of their likely behavioural and psychological effects. specifically, prospective parents will increasingly choose the genetic makeup of their future children rather than playing genetic roulette. natural selection is going to be replaced by "unnatural" selection. but first, let us outline a very different, bioconservative vision, perhaps best represented today by the distinguished geneticist at university college london, professor steve jones. two contrasting views of future human evolution 1) bioconservativism : [" the end of evolution "?] "if you want to know what utopia is like, just look around - this is it", says professor jones in a royal society debate in edinburgh. in a talk 1 entitled "is evolution over?" prof. jones says: "things have simply stopped getting better, or worse, for our species." professor jones explains how there were three components to human evolution – natural selection, mutation and random change. “quite unexpectedly, we have dropped the human mutation rate because of a change in reproductive patterns.” “in ancient times half our children would have died by the age of 20. now, in the western world, 98 per cent of them are surviving to 21”, says professor jones in a recent interview 2 with the times . the mutation rate is also slowing down. although chemicals and radioactive pollution could cause genetic changes, one of the most important mutation triggers was advanced age in men. "perhaps surprisingly, the age of reproduction has gone down - the mean age of male reproduction means that most conceive no children after the age of 35. fewer older fathers means that if anything, mutation is going down." it's worth adding that some scientists and right-wing commentators go further than steve jones. they argue that because nominally more intelligent people have fewer children than nominally less intelligent people, then the intelligence of the human species as a whole is actually going to decline. this prediction isn't borne out by the long-term increase in iq scores over the last century, the "flynn effect". however, believers in the so-called dysgenic fertility hypothesis counter that it is possible for genotypic iq to decline even while phenotypic iq rises throughout the population, at least in the short run. they explain this paradox by environmental effects such as better schooling, improved nutrition, and even television viewing. by contrast to the bioconservative perspective: 2) biorevolution : human evolution is about to accelerate. selection pressure isn't going to slacken. on the contrary, we're on the eve an era of un natural or artificial selection - a different kind of selection pressure, but a selection pressure that will be extraordinarily intense, favouring a very different set of adaptations than traits that were genetically adaptive in the ancestral environment on the african savannah. let's quickly review some background. the human genome project ( hgp ) was the international scientific research project that aimed to determine the sequence of chemical base pairs of our dna : the genetic make-up of our species. researchers identified, physically and functionally, the 25,000 or so genes of the human genome. the project was formally declared complete to a 99.99% accuracy in 2003, though in reality there are a lot of loose ends to be tied up. the full implications of our deciphered code have scarcely been glimpsed. they may take centuries to unravel. currently [2009], if you want your whole genome of three billion odd base pairs sequenced, the price is several thousand dollars. this figure is prohibitively expensive for most people. [in 2015, the price had fallen to around one thousand dollars.] but in a decade or so, the cost on some estimates could be as little as ten dollars. whatever the exact price or timing, the cost of access to one's own source code is poised to collapse. routine access to one's personal genome will usher in an era of personalised medicine - individual drugs, dosages and gene therapies targeted at the individual rather than the scatter-gun approach we see in clinical pharmacology (and recreational drug use) today. yet we're not just heading for an era of personalized medicine - we're on the eve of an era of personalized reproductive medicine: "designer babies", to use the popular term. the phrase suggests something frivolous, akin to designer clothes. but choosing the genetic make-up of your child may soon become the badge of responsible parenthood - as distinct from throwing the genetic dice and hoping they roll the right way, as now. a reluctance to pass on harmful code to our children won't just apply to obvious autosomal dominant conditions like the neurological disorder huntington's disease. what prospective parent, if offered the choice, is deliberately going to pass on genes for haemophilia, sickle-cell anaemia or muscular dystrophy? it has been estimated that on average we each carry four lethal recessive genes. in a future of post-genomic reproductive medicine, the selection pressure against, say, the cystic fibrosis allele, the cause of the most common life-limiting autosomal recessive disease among people of european heritage, is going to become intense, as indeed is selection pressure against a whole range of genes that cause or contribute to physical disease. currently, we're used to googling prospective partners on the net to find out more about them. looking ahead, what responsible prospective parent will neglect to check their partner's dna - and their own - before having children? this doesn't mean that anyone who wants a child will reject an asymptomatic partner who carries a recessive copy of a "nasty" gene. instead, responsible parents can use preimplantation genetic diagnosis and germline gene therapy to ensure that potentially harmful genes like the recessive cystic fibrosis allele aren't passed on to their children. genetic roulette versus designer babies yet how about heritable psychological traits, "personality genes", that contribute to psychological pain? not merely is there no consensus on whether some of their less pleasant variants should be classed as pathological, here too things are much more complex technically than for monogenic disorders like cystic fibrosis . this is because there is no such thing as a single gene "for" depression or anxiety disorders or jealousy or o

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Domain Name: REPRODUCTIVE-REVOLUTION.COM
Registry Domain ID: 989173311_DOMAIN_COM-VRSN
Registrar WHOIS Server: whois.godaddy.com
Registrar URL: http://www.godaddy.com
Updated Date: 2018-02-08T03:10:44Z
Creation Date: 2007-05-23T07:45:33Z
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